<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">proanaris</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Проблемы анализа риска</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Issues of Risk Analysis</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1812-5220</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-7882</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ФГБУ ВНИИ ГОЧС (ФЦ)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-4-54-63</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">proanaris-425</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>УПРАВЛЕНИЕ РИСКАМИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RISK MANAGEMENT</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Перспективы развития риск-менеджмента организаций с точки зрения общей теории систем</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Organizational Risk-Management Perspectives from the General Systems Theory Point of View</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Саченко</surname><given-names>Л. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sachenko</surname><given-names>L. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Саченко Лариса Анатольевна: кандидат экономических наук, генеральный директор</p><p>Количество публикаций: 7, из них 1 монография</p><p>Область научных интересов: управление риском и страхование</p><p>Контактная информация: Адрес: 107023, г. Москва, пер. Мажоров, д. 14, стр. 21 </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Larisa A. Sachenko</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sachenko@risk-profile.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ООО «Риск-профиль»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Risk-profile LLC</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>08</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>17</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>54</fpage><lpage>63</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Саченко Л.А., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Саченко Л.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Sachenko L.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.risk-journal.com/jour/article/view/425">https://www.risk-journal.com/jour/article/view/425</self-uri><abstract><p>Целью данной работы является определение возможных путей развития риск-менеджмента организаций как участников эволюции планетарной социально-экологической системы (социоэкосистемы). Для этого планетарная социоэкосистема рассмотрена как объект с точки зрения общей теории систем. Показано, что отклонение данной системы от стационарного состояния, которое сопровождается резкими флуктуациями и бифуркациями, приводит к необходимости адаптации области деятельности по управлению риском в организациях к внешним условиям. В результате проведенного анализа выделено два перспективных направления для развития риск-менеджмента в организациях. Первое направление основано на методе снижения внешних рисков путем управляемого воздействия на параметры функционирования планетарной системы. Общая теория систем утверждает, что управляемое приближение системы к стационарному состоянию возможно при помощи самоорганизации элементов системы. На основе исследований по экономике ресурсов общего пользования и представления организаций как элементов планетарной социоэкосистемы, а также на основе анализа последних международных тенденций по достижению устойчивого развития получен вывод об  актуальности участия организаций в кооперативной деятельности и деятельности по самоорганизации с точки зрения управления внешними рисками. В  качестве второго перспективного направления развития риск-менеджмента, для содействия организациям по ведению деятельности в бифуркационной области, рассмотрена и предложена к использованию концепция жизнестойкости. Расширение текущей практики управления риском в организациях по предложенным направлениям позволит обеспечить необходимую адаптивность и устойчивость организаций по отношению к высокой динамике внешних рисков.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The purpose of this work is to identify possible ways of organizational risk management development as part of the evolution of the planetary socio-ecological system (socio-ecosystem). For this purpose, the planetary socio-ecosystem was considered as an object from the point of view of the general theory of systems. It was shown that the deviation of this system from the stationary state, which is accompanied by sharp fluctuations and bifurcations, leads to the need to adapt the risk management activity in organizations to external conditions. As a result of the analysis, two perspective directions for the development of risk management in organizations where identifi ed. The first direction is based on the method of reducing external risks by controlled influence on the parameters of the planetary system. The general theory of systems states that a controlled approximation of a system to a stationary state is possible by self-organization of system`s elements. Based on research on the economy of common resources and the representation of organizations as elements of the planetary socio-ecosystem, as well as on the analysis of recent international trends in achieving sustainable development, a conclusion about the relevance of organizations ‘ participation in cooperative activities and self-organization in terms of external risk management was made. In order to assist organizations in conducting activities in the bifurcation area the second perspective direction of the risk management development — the concept of resilience — was considered and proposed for practical usage. Expanding the current practice of risk management in organizations to the proposed areas will ensure the appropriate level of adaptability and stability of organizations in relation to the high dynamics of external risks.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>риск</kwd><kwd>риск-менеджмент</kwd><kwd>устойчивое развитие</kwd><kwd>нестационарная система</kwd><kwd>самоорганизация</kwd><kwd>ресурсы общего пользования</kwd><kwd>жизнестойкость</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>risk management</kwd><kwd>sustainable development</kwd><kwd>non-stationary system</kwd><kwd>self-organization</kwd><kwd>common pool resources</kwd><kwd>resilience</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Быков А. А. Эффективное управление рисками предполагает мониторинг системных свойств мира // Проблемы анализа риска. Т. 13. 2016. № 2. С. 4—5. https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-2-4-5</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bykov A. A. Effective risk management involves monitoring the system properties of the world // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 13. 2016. № 2. P. 4—5 (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-2-4-5</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development. Our Common Future. 1987. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0753-5_441</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development. Our Common Future. 1987. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0753-5_441</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Селиванов А. И. Витальный подход в методологических основаниях обеспечения национальной экономической безопасности России // Безопасность бизнеса. 2019. № 4. С. 3.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Selivanov A. I. The Vital Approach in Methodological Bases of Ensuring National Economic Security in Russia // Business safety. 2019. No. 4. P. 3 (Russia).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit4"><label>4</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Махутов Н. А., Гаденин М. М., Юдина О. Н. Научный анализ рисков в жизнеобеспечении человека, общества и государства // Проблемы анализа риска. Т. 16. 2019. № 2. C. 70—86. https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-70-86</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Makhutov Nikolay A., Gadenin Mihail M., Yudina Olga N. The scientific analysis of risks in life-support of a person, a society and the state // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 16. 2019. No. 2. P. 70—86 (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-70-86</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit5"><label>5</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Соколов Ю. И. Проблемы рисков современного общества // Проблемы анализа риска. Т. 13. 2016. № 2. С. 6—23. https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-2-6-23</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Sokolov Y. I. Problems of the risks of modern society // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 13. 2016. No. 2. P. 6—23 (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-2-6-23</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit6"><label>6</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bertalanffy L. von. General System Theory // General Systems. 1965. Vol. 1. P. 1.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bertalanffy L. von. General System Theory // General Systems. 1965. Vol. 1. P. 1.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit7"><label>7</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Пригожин И., Стенгерс И. Порядок из хаоса: новый диалог человека с природой. М.: Прогресс, 1986.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Prigogine I., Stengers I. Order out of Chaos. Man's new dialogue with nature. M.: Progress, 1986 (Russia).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit8"><label>8</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Хакен Г. Синергетика. М.: Мир, 1980.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Haken H. Synergetics. M.: Mir, 1980 (Russia).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit9"><label>9</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Моисеев Н. Универсальный эволюционизм. (Позиция и следствия) // Вопросы философии. 1991. Т. 3.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Moiseev N. Universal evolutionism. (Position and consequences) // Questions of philosophy. 1991. Vol. 3. Moscow (Russia).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit10"><label>10</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ostrom E. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316423936</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ostrom E. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316423936</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit11"><label>11</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Олсон М. Логика коллективных действий: общественные блага и теория групп / Под ред. P. M. Нуреева. М.: Фонд экономической инициативы, 1995.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Olson M. The Logic of collective action: public goods and group theory / Under the editorship of P. M. Nureev. M.: Fund of economic initiative, 1995. Moscow (Russia).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit12"><label>12</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Chandler D. Beyond neoliberalism: resilience, the new art of governing complexity, Resilience: International Policies, Practices and Discourses. 2014. 2:1. P. 47—63. DOI: 10.1080/21693293.2013.878544</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Chandler D. Beyond neoliberalism: resilience, the new art of governing complexity, Resilience: International Policies, Practices and Discourses. 2014. 2:1. P. 47—63. DOI: 10.1080/21693293.2013.878544</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit13"><label>13</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Lengnick-Hall C. A., Beck T. E., Lengnick-Hall M. L. Developing a capacity for organizational resilience through strategic human resource management // Human Resource Management Review 21 (2011). P. 243—255. doi:10.1016/j.hrmr.2010.07.001</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Lengnick-Hall C. A., Beck T. E., Lengnick-Hall M. L. Developing a capacity for organizational resilience through strategic human resource management // Human Resource Management Review 21 (2011). P. 243—255. doi:10.1016/j.hrmr.2010.07.001</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit14"><label>14</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Proag V. The concept of vulnerability and resilience // Procedia Economics and Finance 18 (2014). P. 369—376. DOI: 10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00952-6</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Proag V. The concept of vulnerability and resilience // Procedia Economics and Finance 18 (2014). P. 369—376. DOI: 10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00952-6</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit15"><label>15</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Xiao L., Cao H. Organizational Resilience: The Theoretical Model and Research Implication // ITM Web of Conferences. 12, 04021 (2017). DOI: 10.1051/ 7120</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Xiao L., Cao H. Organizational Resilience: The Theoretical Model and Research Implication // ITM Web of Conferences. 12, 04021 (2017). DOI: 10.1051/ 7120</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit16"><label>16</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Eisenberg D. A., Linkov I., Park J., Bates M. E., Fox-Lent C., Seager T. P. Resilience Metrics: Lessons from Military Doctrines // Solutions for a sustainable and desirable future. 2014. Vol. 5. No. 5.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Eisenberg D. A., Linkov I., Park J., Bates M. E., Fox-Lent C., Seager T. P. Resilience Metrics: Lessons from Military Doctrines // Solutions for a sustainable and desirable future. 2014. Vol. 5. No. 5.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit17"><label>17</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Park J., Seager T., Rao P. S. C., Convertino M., &amp; Linkov I. (2013). Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems. Risk Analysis, 33 (3). P. 356—367. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Park J., Seager T., Rao P. S. C., Convertino M., &amp; Linkov I. (2013). Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems. Risk Analysis, 33 (3). P. 356—367. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit18"><label>18</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Rose A., Krausmann E. An economic framework for the development of a resilience index for business recovery // International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5 (2013). P. 73—83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.08.003</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Rose A., Krausmann E. An economic framework for the development of a resilience index for business recovery // International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5 (2013). P. 73—83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.08.003</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit19"><label>19</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kuznets S. Economic Growth and Income Inequality // The American Economic Review. 1955. Vol. 45. P. 1—28.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kuznets S. Economic Growth and Income Inequality // The American Economic Review. 1955. Vol. 45. P. 1—28.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit20"><label>20</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Weizsäcker von E. U., Wijkman A. Come On! Capitalism, Short-termism, Population and the Destructionof the Planet — A Report to the Club of Rome. Springer Science+Busi ness Media LLC. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4939-7419-1, 2018</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Weizsäcker von E. U., Wijkman A. Come On! Capitalism, Short-termism, Population and the Destructionof the Planet — A Report to the Club of Rome. Springer Science+Busi ness Media LLC. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4939-7419-1, 2018</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit21"><label>21</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Rockström J., Steffen W., Noone K. et al. Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating // Ecology and Society 14 (2): 32 [online]. 2009. URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ (Дата обращения: 09.06.2020).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Rockström J., Steffen W., Noone K. et al. Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating // Ecology and Society 14 (2): 32 [online]. 2009. URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ (Дата обращения: 09.06.2020).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit22"><label>22</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Steffen W., Richardson K., Rockström J. et al. Planetary boundaries: guiding human development // Science 347(6223): 736—747. 2015. DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855. P. 736—747.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Steffen W., Richardson K., Rockström J. et al. Planetary boundaries: guiding human development // Science 347(6223): 736—747. 2015. DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855. P. 736—747.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit23"><label>23</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Raworth K. A Safe and Just Space for Humanity // Oxfam Discussion Paper. February 2012.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Raworth K. A Safe and Just Space for Humanity // Oxfam Discussion Paper. February 2012.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit24"><label>24</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Raworth K. Doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist // Chelsea Green Publishing. March 2018. ISBN 9781603587969. P. 1—320.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Raworth K. Doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist // Chelsea Green Publishing. March 2018. ISBN 9781603587969. P. 1—320.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit25"><label>25</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Baumol W. J. On Taxation and the Control of Externalities // American Economic Review. 1972. Vol. 62. No. 3. P. 307—322.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Baumol W. J. On Taxation and the Control of Externalities // American Economic Review. 1972. Vol. 62. No. 3. P. 307—322.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit26"><label>26</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Nordhaus W. Traditional productivity estimates are asleep at the (technological) switch // Economic Journal. 1997. Vol. 107. No. 444. P. 1548—59.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Nordhaus W. Traditional productivity estimates are asleep at the (technological) switch // Economic Journal. 1997. Vol. 107. No. 444. P. 1548—59.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit27"><label>27</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Alexander D. E. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey // Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2013. Vol. 13. P. 2707—2716. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2707-2013</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Alexander D. E. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey // Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2013. Vol. 13. P. 2707—2716. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2707-2013</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit28"><label>28</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коцур Г. В. Проблема включения и реализации динамического измерения при укреплении стрессоустойчивости общества: на примере лондонских терактов 2005 и 2017 годов // Вестник Волгоградского гос. ун-та. Серия 4. История. Регионоведение. Международные отношения. 2018. Т. 23. № 6. С. 154—163. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2018.6.12</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kotsur G. V. Inclusion and Implementation of the Dynamic Dimension in the Process of StrengtheningResilience of Society: the Case of the London Terrorist Attacks of 2005 and 2017 // Science Journal of Volgograd State University. History. Area Studies. International Relations. 2018. Vol. 23. No. 6. P. 154—163 (Russia). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2018.6.12</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit29"><label>29</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bruneau M., Chang S. E. et al. A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities // Earthquake Spectra. Vol. 19. No. 4 (2003). P. 733—752. DOI: 10.1193/1.1623497.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bruneau M., Chang S. E. et al. A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities // Earthquake Spectra. Vol. 19. No. 4 (2003). P. 733—752. DOI: 10.1193/1.1623497.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
