proanarisПроблемы анализа рискаIssues of Risk Analysis1812-52202658-7882ФГБУ ВНИИ ГОЧС (ФЦ)10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-1-38-57proanaris-353Research ArticleРИСКИ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ ПРОЕКТОВRISKS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTSО выборе математических методов оценки стоимости реальных опционов на увеличение мощности нефтегазовых проектовOn the choice of mathematical methods for assessing the value of real options for capacity extension of oil and gas projectsХатьковВ. Ю.Khat’kovV. Yu.

Хатьков Виталий Юрьевич: начальник Департамента. Количество публикаций: 22. Область научных интересов: экономика и управление промышленными предприятиями

117997, г. Москва, ул. Наметкина, д. 16

Vitaly Yu. Khat’kov

117997, Moscow, st. Nametkina, 16

ЗубаревГ. В.ZubarevG. V.

Зубарев Геннадий Владимирович: кандидат экономических наук, начальник центра. Количество публикаций: 14. Область научных интересов: экономика и управление промышленными предприятиями

142117, Московская обл., Ленинский район, сельское поселение Развилковское, пос. Развилка, Проектируемый проезд № 5537, Вл. 15, стр. 1.Тел.: +7 (498) 657-96-71 

Gennady V. Zubarev

142717, Moscow region, Leninsky district, the rural settlement of Razvilkovskoye, the village of Razvilka, Projected passage No. 5537, building 15, building 1

g_zubarev@vniigaz.gazprom.ruДемкинИ. В.DemkinI. V.

Демкин Игорь Вячеславович: доктор экономических наук, начальник лаборатории. Количество публикаций: 70. Область научных интересов: управление проектами, портфелями проектов, рисками

142117, Московская обл., Ленинский район, сельское поселение Развилковское, пос. Развилка, Проектируемый проезд № 5537, вл. 15, стр. 1Тел.: +7 (498) 657-44-47

Igor V. Demkin

142717, Moscow region, Leninsky district, the rural settlement of Razvilkovskoye, the village of Razvilka, Projected passage No. 5537, building 15, building 1

I_demkin@vniigaz.gazprom.ruПожидаевЕ. В.PozhidaevE. V.

Пожидаев Евгений Васильевич: главный специалист. Количество публикаций: 2. Область научных интересов: имитационное моделирование сложных систем, математическое моделирование проектов и процессов в нефтегазовой отрасли

142117, Московская обл., Ленинский район, сельское поселение Развилковское, пос. Развилка, Проектируемый проезд № 5537, вл. 15, стр. 1Тел.: +7 (498) 657-40-86

Evgeny V. Pozhidaev

142717, Moscow region, Leninsky district, the rural settlement of Razvilkovskoye, the village of Razvilka, Projected passage No. 5537, building 15, building 1

E_pozhidaev@vniigaz.gazprom.ruНиконовИ. М.NikonovI. M.

Никонов Игорь Михайлович: кандидат физико-математических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник. Количество публикаций: 60. Область научных интересов: анализ рисков, прогнозирование, маломерная топология

105066, г. Москва, ул. Старая Басманная, д. 20, стр. 8Тел.: +7 (495) 631-52-65

Igor M. Nikonov

105066, Moscow, st. Old Basmannaya, d. 20, p. 8

I.Nikonov@econom.gazprom.ruПАО «Газпром»РоссияPJSC "Gazprom"Russian FederationООО «Газпром ВНИИГАЗ»РоссияOOO "Gazprom VNIIGAZ"Russian FederationООО «НИИгазэкономика»Россия"NIIgazeconomika"Russian Federation2020270220201713857Copyright © Хатьков В.Ю., Зубарев Г.В., Демкин И.В., Пожидаев Е.В., Никонов И.М., 20202020Хатьков В.Ю., Зубарев Г.В., Демкин И.В., Пожидаев Е.В., Никонов И.М.Khat’kov V.Y., Zubarev G.V., Demkin I.V., Pozhidaev E.V., Nikonov I.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.risk-journal.com/jour/article/view/353

Представлены результаты проведенного исследования оценки стоимости реального опциона на увеличение мощности двухфазного проекта производства сжиженного природного газа, экономического эффекта от резервирования мощностей в проекте. Показана целесообразность применения метода имитационного моделирования для решения задач оценки экономической эффективности рассматриваемого проекта с учетом реального опциона на различных стадиях проектного цикла. Даны рекомендации по применению методов построения биноминальной модели и численного интегрирования в качестве дополнительных (проверочных) методов оценивания экономической эффективности проекта с опционом на предынвестиционной стадии.

The article presents the results of the study of cost evaluation of a real option for capacity extension of a two-phase liquefied natural gas production project and the economic effect of reserving capacity in the project. The expediency of using the simulation method to solve the problem of assessing the economic efficiency of the project with the real option at different stages of the project cycle is shown. Recommendations are given on using methods for constructing a binomial and a numerical integration models as additional (testing) methods for assessing the economic efficiency of a project with an option at the pre-investment stage.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.