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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">proanaris</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Проблемы анализа риска</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Issues of Risk Analysis</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1812-5220</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-7882</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ФГБУ ВНИИ ГОЧС (ФЦ)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-12-23</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">proanaris-295</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ АРКТИЧЕСКОГО РЕГИОНА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ARCTIC REGION SECURITY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Геоэкологический риск на фоне геополитических вызовов нефтегазовой отрасли в Арктике</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Geoenvirоnmental risks on the background geopolitical challenges for the oil and gas industry in the Arctic</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Трубицина</surname><given-names>О. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Trubitsina</surname><given-names>O. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p> кандидат географических наук, доцент</p><p>163002, Россия, г. Архангельск, набережная Северной Двины, д. 17</p><p> Тел.: +7 (911) 670-92-25Е-mail: test79@yandex.ru</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>163002, Russian, Arkhangelsk, Severnaya Dvina Embankment, 17</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">o.trubitsina@narfu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Башкин</surname><given-names>В. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bashkin</surname><given-names>V. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор биологических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник</p><p>142292, Россия, Московская обл., г. Пущино, ул. Институтская, д. 2-1</p><p>Тел.: +7 (916) 864-24-11</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>142292, Russia, Moscow Region, Pushchino, st. Institute, 2-1</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vladimirbashkin@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГАОУ ВО «Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет имени М. В. Ломоносова»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Northern (Arctic) Federal University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБУ науки Институт физико-химических и биологических проблем почвоведения РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>FSIS Institute of physicochemical and biological problems in soil science RAS</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>08</month><year>2019</year></pub-date><volume>16</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>12</fpage><lpage>23</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Трубицина О.П., Башкин В.Н., 2019</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2019</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Трубицина О.П., Башкин В.Н.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Trubitsina O.P., Bashkin V.N.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.risk-journal.com/jour/article/view/295">https://www.risk-journal.com/jour/article/view/295</self-uri><abstract><p>Статья посвящена вопросам геоэкологии и геополитики в Арктике. Авторы раскрывают необходимость учета геополитических вызовов в процессе анализа геоэкологических рисков (ГЭР) нефтегазового освоения Арктического региона. Это связано с пересечением здесь стратегических интересов ряда государств и их направленности доказать неспособность России обеспечить экологическую безопасность при разработке месторождений Арктики. Тематика ГЭР используется как геополитический инструмент против России в связи с вероятностью ее становления ключевым игроком региона. Авторы предлагают модель анализа ГЭР, которая основывается на критических нагрузках (КН) кислотности поллютантов и включает 2 этапа: 1) этап количественной оценки ГЭР, что позволяет рассчитать не только величины прогнозируемых изменений в состоянии арктических экосистем, но и вероятности их наступления; 2) этап управления ГЭР с учетом геополитических факторов, предполагающий качественную экспертную оценку, являющийся процедурой принятия управленческого решения по достижению приемлемых уровней суммарного ГЭР.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article is devoted to the issues of geoecology and geopolitics in the Arctic. The authors reveal the need to consider geopolitical challenges in the analysis of geoecological risks (GER) of oil and gas development of the Arctic region. This is due to the intersection here of the strategic interests of several States and their focus to prove the inability of Russia to ensure environmental safety in the development of Arctic fi elds. Th e subject of GER is used as a geopolitical tool against Russia due to the probability of it becoming a key player in the region. The authors propose a model for the analysis of GER, which is based on critical loads (CL) of acidity of pollutants and includes 2 stages: 1) the stage of quantitative assessment of GER, which allows to calculate not only the magnitude of the projected changes in the state of the Arctic ecosystems, but also the probability of their occurrence; 2) the stage of management of GER taking into account geopolitical factors, assuming a qualitative expert assessment, which is a procedure for making a management decision to achieve acceptable levels of the total GER.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>геоэкологический риск</kwd><kwd>геополитические вызовы</kwd><kwd>нефтегазодобывающая промышленность</kwd><kwd>Арктика</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>geoenvironmental risk</kwd><kwd>geopolitical challenges</kwd><kwd>oil and gas industry</kwd><kwd>Arctic</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Шварц Е. 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